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Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat, Oct 10, 5:00 PM EDT
Prelims · Women's FlyweightWomen's Flyweight: 116 to 125 lb (53 to 57 kg). Fighters weigh in the day before the fight and must make the limit. In non-title fights they get 1 lb of leeway; miss it and they usually forfeit part of their purse.
ResultDraw (Majority) · R3 · 5:00
“Heavy-Handed”
Lithuania
6-2-2
47% by the odds · Underdog
Opened +141
Brazil
9-3-3
53% by the odds · Favorite
Opened -170
Tale of the Tape
- 28
- Age
- 30
- 5'9"
- Height
- 5'5"
- 71"
- ReachArm span, fingertip to fingertip.
- 69"
- Orthodox
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Fighters Land MMA
- Gym
- KO Squad MMA
- 33%
- Finish rateShare of pro wins that came by knockout or submission instead of the judges.
- 78% (better)
- 35-13-3 (better)
- Last 5 opp. recordThe current pro records of their last 5 opponents, added together. Tougher opponents mean a bigger win total.
- 41-23-2
- 1554
- Power IndexUFCalendar's strength rating, built from every pro fight: beating strong opponents raises it, losing lowers it. The best in the UFC are around 2000.
- 1586 (better)
- 1652 (better)
- Last 5 opp. Power IndexAverage Power Index of their last 5 opponents. Higher means tougher competition.
- 1620
- 6.47 (better)
- Strikes landed/minSignificant strikes landed per minute of fight time.
- 3.35
- 5.72
- Strikes absorbed/minSignificant strikes taken per minute of fight time. Lower is better.
- 2.76 (better)
- 42%
- Striking accuracyShare of significant strikes thrown that land.
- 50% (better)
- 49%
- Striking defenseShare of opponents' significant strikes that miss.
- 56% (better)
- 0.60
- Takedowns/15 minTakedowns landed per 15 minutes of fight time.
- 1.64
- 84% (better)
- Takedown defenseShare of opponents' takedown attempts they stop.
- 61%
- 0.00
- Sub attempts/15 minSubmission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time.
- 0.70
Scouting Reports
How each fighter wins, how they're trending, and their style.
Ernesta Kareckaite
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
Won 2 of last 5
Last 5, newest first.
- How They Win
- Kareckaite's wins split 2 by KO/TKO, 0 by submission and 4 by decision, a 33% finish rate. Decisions are her most common win, so she lives on the scorecards more than she ends fights early.
- Recent Form
- Most recent, a majority draw with Melissa Gatto (9-3-3) after three rounds. Before that, a unanimous decision loss to Regina Tarin, then a split decision win over Nicolle Caliari (9-4-0).
- Style
- Orthodox with a 71" reach, Kareckaite lands 6.47 significant strikes a minute at 42% accuracy but absorbs 5.72, defending 49%. She rarely shoots takedowns (0.6 per 15 minutes) but stuffs 84% of attempts against her.
Written by AI from stored stats. Not a prediction.
Melissa Gatto
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
Won 1 of last 5
Last 5, newest first.
- How They Win
- Gatto is a finisher. Her wins split 3 by KO/TKO, 4 by submission and 2 by decision, for a 78% finish rate. She makes people tap more than anything else, and she's no scorecard fighter.
- Recent Form
- Most recent was a majority draw with Ernesta Kareckaite (6-2-2). Before that, a majority decision loss to Dione Barbosa (10-4-0). Before that, a round 3 KO/TKO win over Tamires Vidal (7-5-0).
- Style
- Orthodox, lands 3.35 significant strikes a minute at 50% accuracy and absorbs 2.76, with 56% striking defense. Averages 1.64 takedowns per 15 minutes at 23% accuracy, defends 61% of takedowns, and throws 0.7 submission attempts per 15.
Written by AI from stored stats. Not a prediction.
Line Movement
Chance the consensus line (average of 18 sportsbooks) implies, as of Oct 11, 12:55 AM EDT.
They've Met Before
- Ernesta KareckaiteDraw, Draw, R3 · Oct 2026
Common Opponents
Fighters both have faced, from pro MMA records.
Dione Barbosa
- Ernesta Kareckaite
- Loss, Decision · May 2024
- Melissa Gatto
- Loss, Decision · Apr 2026