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Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 AM EDT

Prelims · LightweightLightweight: 146 to 155 lb (66 to 70 kg). Fighters weigh in the day before the fight and must make the limit. In non-title fights they get 1 lb of leeway; miss it and they usually forfeit part of their purse.

ResultGrant Dawson won · Decision - Unanimous · R3 · 5:00

Grant Dawson

“KGD”

#15 Lightweight

United States

25-3-1

-345

73% by the odds · Favorite

Nurullo Aliev

“Tajik Eagle”

Tajikistan

12-1-0

+250

27% by the odds · Underdog

Tale of the Tape

32
Age
25
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
ReachArm span, fingertip to fingertip.
72"
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
American Top Team
Gym
Kaizen MMA
76% (better)
Finish rateShare of pro wins that came by knockout or submission instead of the judges.
17%
2 wins
StreakCurrent run of straight wins or losses (no contests skipped).
–
89-21 (better)
Last 5 opp. recordThe current pro records of their last 5 opponents, added together. Tougher opponents mean a bigger win total.
82-28-2
1882 (better)
Power IndexUFCalendar's strength rating, built from every pro fight: beating strong opponents raises it, losing lowers it. The best in the UFC are around 2000.
1733
1787 (better)
Last 5 opp. Power IndexAverage Power Index of their last 5 opponents. Higher means tougher competition.
1730
3.39 (better)
Strikes landed/minSignificant strikes landed per minute of fight time.
2.67
2.31 (better)
Strikes absorbed/minSignificant strikes taken per minute of fight time. Lower is better.
2.49
51% (better)
Striking accuracyShare of significant strikes thrown that land.
48%
44%
Striking defenseShare of opponents' significant strikes that miss.
53% (better)
3.69
Takedowns/15 minTakedowns landed per 15 minutes of fight time.
3.01
64% (better)
Takedown defenseShare of opponents' takedown attempts they stop.
59%
1.30
Sub attempts/15 minSubmission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time.
0.40

Scouting Reports

How each fighter wins, how they're trending, and their style.

Grant Dawson

  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W

Bounced back: won 2 straight

Last 5, newest first.

How They Win
Dawson is a submission artist. His wins_by split is 14 submissions, 5 KO/TKO and 6 decisions, good for a 76% finish rate. He taps people far more often than he puts them to sleep.
Recent Form
Aliev (12-0-0), win, unanimous decision in round 3. Rębecki (21-5-0), win, submission in round 3. Torres (17-4-0), loss, KO/TKO in round 1. Dawson's loss to Torres ended in the first round.
Style
Switch-stance. Lands 3.39 significant strikes a minute at 51% accuracy and absorbs 2.31, defending 44%. The grappling is the engine: 3.69 takedowns per 15 minutes at 42% accuracy, 1.3 submission attempts per 15, with takedown defense at 64%.

Written by AI from stored stats. Not a prediction.

Nurullo Aliev

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W

Won 4 of last 5

Last 5, newest first.

How They Win
Aliev lives on the scorecards. His wins by the numbers: 10 by decision, 2 by KO/TKO, 0 by submission, with a 17% finish rate. He grinds out rounds rather than ending fights early.
Recent Form
Aliev dropped a unanimous decision to Grant Dawson (24-3-1) in his latest outing. Before that, he beat Mike Davis (12-4-0) by unanimous decision, then Shem Rock (12-3-1) by unanimous decision.
Style
Orthodox stance. He lands 2.67 significant strikes a minute at 48% accuracy and absorbs 2.49, defending 53% of strikes. The wrestling is the engine: 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy, stopping 59% of opposing shots.

Written by AI from stored stats. Not a prediction.

Line Movement

Chance the DraftKings moneyline implies, as of Oct 24, 12:30 PM EDT.

0%50%100%Oct 17Oct 24
Grant Dawson-115 → -345 · 51% → 73%Nurullo Aliev-105 → +250 · 49% → 27%

They've Met Before

Common Opponents

Fighters both have faced, from pro MMA records.

Grant Dawson's pageNurullo Aliev's pageFull card